ICM 2026 Election & Policy Outlook

2026 Election & Policy Outlook

What could the midterms mean for impact investing?

Pick a scenario. See what it could mean for ICM.

You set the environment. The answer below updates as you go, and the Key Races tab shows who ends up holding the gavels inside it. Nothing here is a prediction.

Start from:

These are shortcuts that set the two questions below. You can change anything afterwards. The first one means giving every seat to whoever the forecasters currently favour, which comes out as a Republican House of about 220 to 215 and a Republican Senate of 52 to 48. It is a starting point, not a prediction.

Who controls the House?Republicans hold it today, 220 seats to 215.
How big is that majority?In a narrow majority, leadership needs almost every vote, so small groups can hold up a bill the committee has already approved.
Who controls the Senate?Republicans hold it today, 53 seats to 47.
How big is that majority?A 50–50 Senate goes to the Vice President's party.

Eight races worth watching

These are the races that change who runs the committees on ICM's engagement priorities, meaning the ones ICM has already met with and the ones it wants to reach going forward. They do not decide chamber control, which you set on the Scenario tab. Not a full race tracker.

Why only eight, and what the rest of the map looks like

ICM's engagement priorities

The committees ICM has met with, and the ones it wants to engage going forward, in ICM's own three tiers from the Policy Landscape deck. Each shows what happens to its leadership under the scenario you picked. Click any committee to jump to it.

These are informed starting points, not settled answers. Both parties sometimes pass over seniority.

Election Night

Click a winner as each race is called. The scenario, the committees and the outlook all update to match.

Call the races